As the global climate crisis intensifies, it is increasingly difficult for countries to formulate response measures acceptable to all stakeholders. In order to understand India’s approach to the challenge of climate change, this article describes the natural environment that has historically influenced its response. The document also discusses the most important imperatives to guide such actions and indicates that these will continue to play a leading role in the future. The document believes that as India’s natural environment continues to affect its economy and public life, any widespread deviation from this course of action will be unsustainable.

Attribution: JM Mauskar and Sayanangshu Modak, "The Necessity of India's Climate Response", ORF Provisional Paper No. 335, October 2021, Observer Research Foundation.

In the past few decades, mainly due to human factors, the global climate has warmed significantly, and the impact of the crisis will be witnessed all over the world. Therefore, response measures also require a global joint effort, although some countries expect and can do more than others. This article discusses India’s role in climate action, and highlights the circumstances and necessity that will continue to guide India’s response.

The paper outlines the natural environment of geography and resource endowments[a] and discusses India’s historical response to them. It analyzes the expected impact of climate change on India and its response to date through domestic strategies and commitments to international instruments. The paper shows that India’s climate actions are largely commensurate with the impact of global warming on the country. It found that India’s response was influenced by its natural environment and guided by its constitution and the spirit of civilization.

In 2015, The Economist referred to India as “a continent masquerading as a country.” [1] In fact, this country is vast and highly diverse in terms of biogeophysical, socio-economic, and political composition. Due to its vast territory, it straddles the two climatic zones of the equator and the temperate zone, the topography is changeable and strongly influenced by the monsoon circulation, the national climate is changeable, the desert is extremely hot and dry, extremely cold and extremely cold. High Altitude Area. India has six climate zones: hot and dry (West Rajasthan, parts of the Indian peninsula); warm and humid (coastal areas, northeastern India); medium (Karnataka, Maharashtra) ; Cold and cloudy (most areas of the Himalayas and parts of central, southern and northeastern India); cold and sunny (Ladakh and Aravalis); and complexes (most of the Indo-Ganga Plain and Central India ). [2] India has experienced six climatic conditions: tropical humid; tropical dry and wet; arid; semi-arid; humid subtropical; and mountains. [3] The temperature ranges from 51 degrees Celsius in Rajasthan to -60 degrees Celsius in Ladakh.

In fact, the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) and Qinghai-Tibet high are well known for their ice sheets, because they have the largest freshwater reserves outside the polar regions. It presents seasonal and permanent cold conditions in its settlements in high-altitude areas such as the Lahar and Spiti districts, the Himachal and Ladakh United Territories. India also has one of the wettest places on earth, and parts of the Thar Desert may have little or no rainfall for many years.

The landforms are also highly diversified and the geographical position is superior, which creates different natural geographical areas and affects the agricultural ecology of the region. India has seven physical geographic regions (see also Figure 1).

Figure 1: Characteristics of relief in India

Most of India's precipitation comes from the monsoon. Northwest India also has precipitation from western disturbances in the Mediterranean. India’s proximity to the tropics and the strategic location of the Himalayas form a clear arc from north to east along the country’s borders, which is the key to the formation of the monsoon climate. The thermal concept of the Indian monsoon indicates that the northern plains heat up in summer, forming permanent thermally induced depressions, and the transfer of the tropical convergence zone to a position over the northern plains, which is well known. During the prevailing monsoon circulation, the alpine chain blocked the equatorial ocean air masses from crossing from the southwest, instead forcing them to bend towards northwestern India. Likewise, it prevented the cold air masses from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the northwest from entering South Asia in winter.

In this highly sloping annual rainfall situation composed mainly of four months of monsoon rainfall, the distribution of rainfall in space and time is also variable. Geographically, local heavy rain is related to terrain obstacles, and regionally, it occurs due to the movement of the monsoon trough. In terms of time, the interannual variability of rainfall associated with the Indian monsoon modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also very high. The rainfall in the El Niño phase is less than normal, and the rainfall in the La Niña phase is higher than normal. There are two reasons for the changes during the year: the intensity of the cyclone during the monsoon and the number of days when the monsoon is interrupted. This may result in insufficient rainfall in the area at the beginning, middle or end of the season. Cyclones mainly occur in the post-monsoon period, and are traditionally more frequent on the edge of the Bay of Bengal, affecting the east coast of India.

Figure 2: Interannual variation of rainfall: Europe (left) and India (right).

At the same time, changes in temperature and rainfall are an inherent part of India's climate. Climate also affects the type and availability of natural capital, such as forests, water, and soil. For example, changes in temperature, rainfall, and humidity have created five groups of forests-humid tropics (west coast, east coast and eastern Himalayas); dry tropics (northern hilly areas and parts of southern India); mountain temperate (central and northern Himalayas) ); mountain subtropical (Northeast India and Western Ghats); and high mountains (Himalayan region and Trans-Himalayas). India also has a variety of soil types, which also largely determine the main crop types in a region. Affected by natural geomorphology, geological conditions and prevailing climatic conditions, river channels also show distinct characteristics in terms of perennial or non-perennial, shape, pattern and other physical characteristics. For example, compared with the rivers of the Indian Peninsula, the Himalayan rivers are basically perennial rivers. Similarly, a river channel may have strong structural control, such as a high-slope canyon, or it may have more meandering space, such as a floodplain.

The geological history of India is unique. India is part of the Gondwana supercontinent and shares land with Africa, Australia and Antarctica. About 120 million years ago, the Indian plate broke and began to migrate north; 50 million years ago, it rushed into the Eurasian plateau, creating the Himalayas. [7] Due to active structures, the Himalayas rise at a rate of more than 1 cm per year. [8] Shallow earthquakes and external disasters frequently occur in this area, causing mountain torrents, landslides, and large hydrological gradients. Hydropower development is facing severe challenges.

India’s geology is also extremely peculiar, which is an important factor in shaping the country’s mineral resource endowment. Most of the valuable minerals are the products of pre-Palaeozoic processes, mainly related to igneous rocks and metamorphic rocks. Therefore, there are basically no minerals in the large alluvial plains in the north, and most of the metal minerals with economic value are produced in the ancient crystalline rocks of the peninsula plateau. India has a large amount of iron ore resources in the form of hematite and magnetite. Approximately 79% of hematite deposits are located in the eastern region (Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Orissa), while 93% of magnetite deposits are located in the southern region (Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu). [9] Another important mineral that contributes to steel production is manganese; India accounts for 8% of global manganese ore reserves. [10] Manganese ore is mainly distributed in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat.

India also has extensive and substantial dolomite, limestone and bauxite deposits. In a report from the International Energy Association (IEA) in May 2021, some key minerals have been identified that are necessary for rapid deployment to achieve the energy transition. [11] Most of these key minerals, such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earths, are not found in viable quantities in India. However, the country has some reserves of chromium, silicon and manganese. Mica, limestone, dolomite and other non-metallic mineral resources are abundant, but the reserves are remote.

In terms of energy resources, India has sufficient coal reserves (9.5% of global reserves), but oil (0.3%) and natural gas (1%) are scarce. [12] Mainly occurred in two stratigraphic horizons-Permian sediments deposited in the Gondwana Basin within the structure and Early Tertiary sediments deposited in the coastal craton basin and shelf. Gondwana coal produced in the eastern and central parts of the Indian peninsula belongs to the type of bituminous coal with medium to high ash and low sulfur. Most of India’s coal is of this type and is considered high-grade. It is concentrated in Damodar, Godavari, Mahanadi and Sone Valley, so it is mainly confined to the eastern region. The Tertiary coal found in northeastern India has a high sulfur content ranging from strong agglomeration to non-agglomeration. There are also lignite varieties in western and southern India, which have a high moisture and volatile content and therefore are of poor quality.

Crude oil is produced in tertiary sedimentary rocks. Oil reservoirs are mainly distributed in the eastern and western borders of countries such as Digboi, Naharkatiya and Moran in Assam and Ankaleshwar, Kalol and Mehsana oil fields in Gujarat. In 1973, an oil reservoir was discovered about 160 kilometers from the coast of Mumbai, which became the Mumbai Highland. Natural gas is obtained along with oil in all oil fields, but exclusive reserves have also been determined distributed along the eastern coast and in Tripura, Rajasthan and other places. Although India has a large land area, its recoverable hydrocarbon reserves are still meager. To date, nearly 76% of the hydrocarbons discovered in India are in Tertiary rocks, 20% are in Mesozoic, and the rest are in older rocks. This is counterintuitive, because on a global scale, the discovery of hydrocarbons shows a reversal with a high probability of occurrence in the Mesozoic strata. Reasonable reasons may be attributed to geological factors. For example, after the Mesozoic Era, thick impermeable igneous rock formations formed in western and central India, which may obscure oil and gas resources and make mining infeasible. [13] Similarly, the thick deposits of the Indo-Ganga Plain make the underlying geology almost inaccessible. In addition, with the Himalayan orogeny, a large number of sedimentary oil-bearing columns may be unearthed and deformed due to the rapid movement and violent uplift of the Indian plate [14]. Therefore, due to strict restrictions on conventional fuel sources other than coal, India has been exploring unconventional energy sources such as nuclear energy since its independence.

India’s uranium reserves are quite limited, at 1,84,964 tons,[15] accounting for only about 2% of the global uranium supply. Uranium deposits are concentrated in four regions of India-Meghalaya, Chotanagpur, Andhra Pradesh/Telangana and Rohil North Delhi fold belt. Compared with the supply of uranium, India has one of the highest reserves of thorium in the world, mainly in the form of mineral monazite found in beaches on the east and west coasts. However, uranium is still the mainstay of the nuclear energy industry because the technology for using it as a nuclear fuel is more developed. [16] However, India is still committed to studying how to use thorium as a nuclear fuel. [17] Thorium is also safer than uranium. It produces much less radioactive waste by volume during use, and the radioactivity of the waste is also lower and its life span is relatively short.

The realization of the above-mentioned energy endowments in power generation is shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3: India Energy Map

Source: VEDAS, NITI Aayog and ISRO[18]

On a global scale, society has adapted to the general climatic conditions of its environment or the endowment of water resources. The Indus Valley civilization appears on the fertile floodplains of the Indus River and its tributaries. It has a distinctive regional culture. Compared with the previous settled agricultural culture, it proves this harmonious relationship. Civilized people in the Indus Valley produced surplus food to feed the city dwellers. Rainwater harvesting was effectively practiced during that period and played a key role in the development of agriculture. [19] Although progress has been made in expanding irrigation coverage to eliminate farmers’ dependence on these seasonal rainfalls, monsoons remain important to the Indian population.

In fact, India traditionally has three agricultural seasons, and Kharif (summer crop) is still the most important, accounting for most of the country's net planting area. In addition, since the country has mainly relied on rainwater for most of its history, it has formed a unique food geography based on the hydrological and meteorological characteristics of the region. Therefore, coarse grains such as sorghum, millet, corn, and barley are part of the Indian platter like rice and wheat, and are found in semi-arid areas such as Rajasthan, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Orissa. Planted.

Since Indian society has adapted to flooding to a large extent, the losses caused by seasonal flooding in floodplains can be kept to a minimum. For example, in the floodplains of Northern Bihar, Agani rice grows on land that is vulnerable to flooding because it can withstand partial and temporary submergence, provided that the flood does not come without warning and the inundation process slow. [20] Similarly, in the areas affected by flooding in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Megna basin, many indigenous strategies have been adopted—from storing excess floodwater in tanks to building houses on stilts, Then it is completely transferred to a safer height and allowed in the season after the monsoon, water will inundate the land to obtain a good harvest. [21] The productivity of floodplains is unusually high due to systemic wetting and drying. Therefore, with the exception of rare floods, floods are no longer a problem. Land use changes in floodplains are limited, as are the growth of human settlements and agricultural land. Therefore, vulnerabilities are limited, and adaptation can be achieved through locally sourced resources and locally designed means. However, another extreme hydrological event, drought, is another matter.

As mentioned earlier, agricultural production in India is inherently linked to monsoons and sufficient rainfall. Therefore, the arid or semi-arid areas in the hinterland and the rain shadow areas of mountains have less water resources. As a result, life in these areas has evolved to adapt to scarcity, whether it is traditionally grown grains or behavioral aspects of water use for various purposes. However, during periods of meteorological drought, crises will still occur. [b] This is related to global and regional factors such as the ENSO phenomenon. Between 1870 and 2018, there were at least 18 meteorological droughts in India; all the severe ones were caused by ENSO. [22] Normally, years of lack of rain have increased the difficulty of rural and agricultural landscapes because of severe food shortages, reduced animal feed, and shortages of drinking water and seeds. In the rare case of these basic needs shifting from neighboring areas with surpluses, people will have no choice but to migrate. Therefore, people are more worried about droughts than floods, sometimes even in fertile areas like the Bengal Delta.

The history of different parts of India is full of ancient wisdom of rainwater harvesting, even if a meteorological drought occurs, it can also reduce the impact of hydrological drought. In the arid region of western Rajasthan, this task was accomplished using dish-shaped Kunds on private land or land owned by caste groups. A Kunde with an area of ​​100 square meters and an annual rainfall of 100 mm can easily collect 10,000 liters of water. [23] Similarly, Khadins, Nadis, Talabs, Virdas, Bandha, and Johad are all traditional methods of collecting rainwater and increasing water infiltration to replenish groundwater. In water-rich areas, the problem is efficient water transportation and local innovative designs; for example, in Meghalaya, bamboo pipe networks are used to transport water from perennial water sources. [24] In the apatani system in Arunachal Pradesh, the irrigation system is designed by small but basic structural interventions in wet rice planting and fish farming to connect several streams and spring. [25] Similarly, Ghuls in the western Himalayas, Zabo and Cheo-ozihi in Nagaland, Dongs and Garh/Dara in the Brahmaputra Valley, and Ahar Pynes in Bihar are all adapted to water endowment conditions and optimized use. Traditional arrangement.

Throughout India’s history, the rule of the king’s responsibilities also requires welfare activities. The key to such activities is the construction and maintenance of water storage structures for different purposes. Therefore, the country has built irrigation tanks, dams and canals to reduce the unpredictability and uncertainty of water supply. Examples include the Hampi aqueduct and canal network under the Vijayanagara Kingdom,[26] the indirect adjustment of water and climate disasters by human beings under the Mughal dynasty through adjustments to land income policies, infrastructure development, administrative reforms, population movements, and landscapes. [27] During droughts or floods, land income reduction (annewari) will be provided and crop/taccavi loans will be provided.

During the British era, colonists took measures to mitigate the unpredictable monsoon, including continuous cycles of floods, hurricanes, and droughts. The Bureau of Meteorology of India was established in 1875 after a large-scale tropical cyclone occurred in 1864 and two failed rains in 1866 and 1871. Britain expanded its irrigation area through a network of canals, took measures to store food and provided relief to deal with drought. They also established a network of railways and roads, mainly to meet the military and other needs of the colonists. Scientific mineral exploration has also been initiated. For example, a large amount of coal and iron ore reserves have been discovered in eastern India, and a large amount of oil reserves have been discovered in Assam. However, when the British left in 1947, the overall economy, and the health of farmers in particular, still depended on the unpredictability of the Indian monsoon.

The technology to take advantage of the potential of India’s mineral wealth and transport it over long distances has emerged with the advent of the industrial age. However, the role and significance of minerals in shaping economy and culture can be traced back to ancient times. India has a glorious history of innovating and mastering various metal minerals, and its use is mainly localized. Ferrous metallurgy is particularly advanced, reaching its peak in the first millennium AD. The iron pillar in Mehrauli, New Delhi is a particularly good example of this progress, as it has withstood rusting and subsequent corrosion for about 1600 years. [28] Similarly, the 13th century text Rasa Rasaratnasamuccaya [29] also elaborated on the ingenious method of distilling down zinc vapor after smelting to obtain metallic zinc.

Until the mid-19th century, wood, charcoal, vegetable oil, and biomass (straw and branches) were used for fuel and lighting. Nothing was wasted because cow dung pie is used as fuel for cooking in the Indo-Ganga Plain. Since no mineable/viable coal reserves were discovered until the end of the 19th century, let alone hydrocarbons, India’s steam/industrial era can be said to have been delayed. 

After independence in 1947, India implemented a federal government, the federal government and the state government shared power, and there was a certain tendency to centralize power. It also ensures that egalitarianism is an inherent part of India by including a section on fundamental rights in the Constitution. Articles 14, 15 and 16 deal in particular with the rights to equality, anti-discrimination and equal opportunities. Due to the daunting task of adapting to the diversity of the population while working to achieve social and economic justice at the same time, the framers of the Indian Constitution recognized that a set of principles was needed to give India an overall direction. Therefore, the National Policy Guiding Principles (DPSP) emerged, the purpose of which is to build the country into a welfare state. Article 39 (b) of the Indian Constitution stipulates that community ownership and material resources should be allocated in a way that best serves the public interest. [c]

This may have embodied the concept of "sustainable development" before the term was institutionalized by the United Nations (UN) in the 1980s. In 1972, India was represented by its head of government at the first United Nations Conference on the Human Environment held in Stockholm. [30] Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi said when advocating the cause of environmental protection, “People are seriously worried that the discussion of ecological issues may be aimed at diverting people’s attention from war and poverty. Most people prove that ecology and protection will not go against their interests, but will improve their lives.” [31] Subsequently, DPSP added two items. In 1976, the 42nd amendment to the Indian Constitution was passed, adding Article 48A, instructing states to protect and improve the environment, and protect the country's forests and wildlife. It also added Article 51, paragraph A, stating that the basic duty of every citizen is to protect and improve the natural environment and sympathize with living things. Forests as a project have been moved from the state list to the parallel list, enabling the federal government to formulate forest and wildlife legislation.

The conversion of constitutional orders into laws designed to protect the environment also occurred in the 1970s and 1980s. The first such law was the Water Pollution Prevention and Control Act of 1974, followed by the similar air law of 1981. The Bhopal gas tragedy in 1984 made the enactment of overall laws dealing with environmental issues even more urgent. The Environmental Protection Act (EPA) was passed in 1986, marking the transition from controlling pollution to protecting the environment. Since then, EPA has become the basis of various subsidiary legislations such as environmental impact assessment and coastal supervision. EPA’s provisions are formulated in such a way that actions can also be taken in accordance with international treaty commitments, such as the national authority designated under the Montreal Protocol of the Vienna Convention on Ozone Depleting Substances.

In the 1990s, a number of public interest litigation (PIL) were submitted to the High Court and Supreme Court, leading to the passage of some basic and far-reaching directives to control air pollution, mining pollution, and deforestation. While enacting environmental-related legislation, the Parliament enacted the Forest (Protection) Act in 1980, which no longer regards forests as exploitable resources, but as national resources that need to be protected and conserved. Special courts have also been established, such as the National Green Court in 2010, aiming to apply natural laws such as the "precautionary principle" or "polluter pays principle" to the national economy.

Social and economic development is also a clear priority for the newly established government after independence. Therefore, the Soviet-style Five-Year Plan (FYPs) was launched in 1951 as a centralized and comprehensive national economic plan. The long-term goal is to increase GDP and per capita income, increase employment levels, achieve self-sufficiency in commodities and food, promote social justice, reduce inequality, and pursue modernization. To achieve these goals, three types of development initiatives have emerged: human development, industrial development, and infrastructure development. The first five-year plan aims to achieve food self-sufficiency, and the second five-year plan implements the Nehru-Maharanobis model of rapid industrialization. [d] The subsequent six five-year plans, until India's economic liberalization in 1991, tried to strengthen agricultural growth to ensure economic stability, while focusing on poverty eradication.

According to the first five-year plan, a multi-purpose river valley development project was launched to increase surface water and effectively transport water to increase the country's irrigation coverage. This is vital to the development of the agricultural sector and brings key synergies such as flood control and hydropower. The Bhakra-Nangal multi-purpose dam and the subsequent Indira Gandhi Canal, Damodar Valley Project and Shirakud Dam project were implemented during this period. The country continues to face severe food shortages and relies on food imports, mainly from the United States. [32] This situation changed with the advent of the Green Revolution in the late 1960s. A key input to help the green revolution succeed is timely, adequate and guaranteed water supply. This was ensured by the proliferation of boreholes, which helped increase the net irrigated area of ​​11 million hectares to 11 million hectares, even though the area irrigated by surface water only increased by 3 million hectares during the same period. [33] Despite all these efforts, 51% of the net sown area is still irrigated by rainwater. [34] The farmers and the local economy continue to be affected by the temporal and spatial changes of the monsoon. The increasing human demand for water, especially in urban areas, has exacerbated severe water shortage pressure; industrial uses and the discharge of untreated wastewater; every year when there is insufficient rainfall, water quality will decline.

In the pre-liberalization stage, India also faced the challenge of energy insecurity. Coal resources are concentrated in the eastern region, and the transportation of coal to thermal power plants across the country increases transportation costs. In addition, due to various factors such as foreign exchange shortages and port capacity restrictions, there were also problems with the free import of coal/oil at that time. Therefore, starting from the first few decades of independence, when the scarce financial resources allow, seek to promote hydropower, nuclear power and solar/wind energy as much as possible. However, the development of nuclear power is limited due to the limited availability of technology and fissile materials. Solar power generation is also affected by the low efficiency of solar cells and grid-related restrictions. Similarly, large hydropower projects are plagued by public resistance due to land-related issues and high upfront capital costs. The oil crisis in the early 1970s sounded the alarm, when serious energy security issues (related to hydrocarbons) became apparent. This has led to the use of organizations such as the Petroleum Conservation Research Association (PCRA) to manage demand, thereby improving energy efficiency and raising taxes.

In 1991 and the subsequent five-year plan (1992-97), the country entered a new stage of economic growth through fiscal and economic reforms (including liberalization). As the share of industry and services in the economy increases, energy production must keep up with the high demand and consumption of energy (see Figure 4). In turn, this demand is mainly driven by energy-intensive industries with low energy efficiency, such as power generation, steel, cement, oil refineries, chemicals, fertilizers, and transportation. Total primary energy consumption (TPEC) grew faster than GDP, and the gap between TPEC and total energy production (TEP) widened in the early 2000s (see Figure 4). At this stage, the demand and consumption of coal and hydrocarbons have also doubled. It is estimated that oil imports have tripled in 10 years, from 500 Kb/d in 1990 to 1.54 Mb/d in 2000. Coal imports have also tripled, and the share of imports that meet domestic coal consumption has risen from less than 4% to 8.3%. 35]

Figure 4: Growth in GDP (in 108 rupees), population (in 108 people), total energy production (in 1015 BTU), and total primary energy consumption (in 1015 BTU)

Soon, people’s concerns about energy security increased day by day, and the Indian government took measures to diversify energy, improve efficiency and strengthen protection and other regulatory mechanisms. These circumstances make the government must actively seek ways to decouple energy consumption from economic growth, even if it is looking for alternative energy sources such as renewable energy. [e] Since the 1990s, India's primary energy intensity as a share of GDP has been declining. The Energy Conservation Act was promulgated in 2001, and the Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) was established under the Act. In 2003, a new "Electricity Law" was promulgated, which, among other reforms, also allowed distribution companies or distribution companies to purchase renewable energy.

In addition, as the government launched a plan in 2006 to provide standards and labels for the energy-saving and cost-saving potential of selected electrical appliances of 21 different brands, energy-saving efforts have also emerged. This is followed by the Energy-Efficient Building Code (ECBC) in 2007, the Agricultural Demand Side Management (DSM) in 2010, and the municipal DSM for various sectors in 2015. [37] India has also made considerable progress in the development of renewable energy, especially in the solar field. The expansion of renewable energy has been the main driving force of successive governments.

At the turn of the 21st century, India suffered three catastrophes: the Odisha supercyclone (1999); the Gujarat earthquake (2001); and the Indian Ocean tsunami (2004). This has prompted political leaders to reshape the existing weak disaster management system across parties. Parliament promulgated the Disaster Management Act in 2005, as a basic piece of legislation, which established a comprehensive framework to enable management agencies at the national, state, regional, and other local levels to perform the tasks and responsibilities assigned to disaster management. At the highest level, the National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) is responsible for formulating policies and approving the national disaster management plan. The states are no longer the ultimate authority to formulate their own plans and must follow the broad guidelines set by the NDMA. [38] This coordinated and structured approach is completely different from the situation before 2004. [f]

As we all know, population level and growth rate are key drivers of energy and other resource consumption. India’s population has grown steadily, while the population growth rate has continued to decline during the decade—from 24.8% in 1961-71 to 21.3% in 1991-2001 and 17.6% in 2001-2011. Today, India has a potentially huge demographic dividend: it has a large number of aspiring young people who can benefit from the kind of rapid economic growth experienced in the past three years.

At the same time, India is still predominantly rural. In rural areas, the basic infrastructure needed to realize aspirations is still insufficient. The deep penetration of technology and cellular connectivity will only make these two extremely unequal growth surfaces coexist. Therefore, while managing its youth population, India faces challenges and opportunities in achieving social and economic justice for all on the path of maintaining poverty reduction and stable economic growth.

To be sure, India has made significant progress since independence. By the time the country passed the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) in 2008, many development indicators had improved. However, there is still a long way to go (see Table 1).

Table 1: Comparison between India (post-independence) and India before the adoption of the National Climate Change Action Plan (NAPCC).

World GDP per capita (1950, 2011 prices): 3700 USD

World GDP per capita (current US dollars): 9428.52

Women as a percentage of the total labor force

(Note that this definition was changed in the 1971 Census, so the number of women recorded as full-time workers (primarily) decreased.)

Weather and climate are two different but related terms: weather refers to the short-term condition of the atmosphere, while climate is the average daily weather of a location over a long period of more than 30 years. In the discussion of climate change, it refers to changes on the climatic scale, including changes in precipitation, temperature and wind patterns over a long period of time. Actions or events of all scales-local, regional or global-can lead to climate change. For example, actions such as land use change, urbanization, and reduction of tree cover will have an impact on the local climate, while catastrophic events will have a greater global impact, such as the KT event caused by the collision of a 10-km-wide asteroid with the earth. The earth then created a nuclear winter, which wiped out 70% of all species. [58] In the current context, climate change is caused by human factors, or the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by the increase in global temperature caused by human activities.

Unlike past catastrophic events, the current man-made global warming caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a relatively slow process, and each greenhouse gas has a different life cycle before it stops maintaining its usual form. For example, water vapor (1 to 10 days) and methane (over 112 years) have relatively shorter lifespans than carbon dioxide (100-300 years) and nitrous oxide (over 120 years). Among these GHGs, CO2 (carbon dioxide) is the most important GHG, based on its lifetime and a larger quantum than other GHGs (280 parts per million in the pre-industrial era, compared to a few parts per billion of other gases in the industrial era). ) Plus its relative global warming potential. Therefore, the current discussion on climate change needs to be linked to the cumulative stock of greenhouse gases, not the annual flow.

As shown in Figure 5, in 1900, almost all accumulated CO2 emissions came from Europe (80%) and the United States (20%). This is because only they can obtain meaningful coal and oil. By 1950, 95% of the accumulated carbon dioxide stock was still allocated to Europe (50%) and the United States (45%). In 1990, when the UN treaty on climate change was being negotiated, developed countries accounted for about 80% of the accumulated carbon dioxide. The latest estimate (2019) shows that approximately 60% of carbon dioxide reserves come from Europe (35%) and the United States (25%), with China accounting for 12% and India 4%. Since the Human Development Index (HDI) is related to per capita energy use, and per capita energy use is related to greenhouse gas emissions, it is interesting that the global per capita greenhouse gas emissions in 2017 were about 4.73T, compared with 16.16 tons in the United States. Britain’s 5.82 tons, China’s 6.86 tons, and India’s 1.84 tons. The 1990 figures are even more skewed. [59] (See Figure 5 and Figure 6).

Figure 5: Cumulative CO2 emissions by region (calculated from fossil fuel and cement production only-excluding land use changes).

Source: Our Data World[60]

Figure 6: Per capita greenhouse gas emissions (emissions excluding land use changes)

Source: Our Data World. [61]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to review and put forward recommendations on physical sciences, climate change impacts and countermeasures. The IPCC has submitted five evaluation reports so far, and work on the sixth is in progress; the report of the first working group on the basis of physical science was submitted in August 2021. [g]

Continuous IPCC reports have found that climate change is exacerbating the water cycle due to rising temperatures due to rising greenhouse gases (mainly the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere). This, in turn, will bring more intense rainfall and related flooding in some areas, and more severe droughts in other areas. Throughout the 21st century, coastal areas will continue to experience sea level rise, which will intensify the melting of permafrost and the loss of seasonal snow cover in mountains and throughout the tundra. The melting of glaciers and ice caps and the loss of Arctic ice in summer will also continue.

On a global scale, ocean changes will include warming and ocean heat waves, ocean acidification and lower oxygen levels, all of which may have adverse effects on marine ecosystems and the populations that depend on them. In urban areas, some impacts are expected to be further amplified, such as the thermal effects of urban “heat islands”, urban floods, and sea level rise in coastal cities. [62], [63] According to the report of the First Working Group of the Sixth Assessment Cycle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), since 1850-1990, human activities have caused a global warming of 1.1 °C, with an average of 1.1 °C over the next 20 years. The global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5 °C. [64]

All departments will be affected. Water-related mortality, infectious diseases and respiratory diseases will be some of the health hazards, while changes in crop yields and irrigation needs will affect the agricultural sector. Similarly, water supply and water quality will also be affected. The loss of habitat and biodiversity will also be a challenge. Forest composition and its geographic extent, health and productivity may also change. Due to rising sea levels and storm surges, the cryosphere will experience recession or complete melting of glaciers, and coastal areas will experience beach erosion and flooding. It is expected that higher expenditures will be required to protect coastal communities in the next few years. [65]

Two working groups (WG) of the IPCC are responsible for tackling climate change, WG II is responsible for adaptation, and WG III is responsible for mitigation. Mitigating climate change means reducing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by reducing emissions; [h] or by absorbing existing greenhouse gases. [i] At the same time, adaptation means sustainably responding to the adverse effects of the entire economy, whether it is water management, the agricultural sector, or poverty. [j] Adaptation measures need to be locally oriented, and mitigation measures can have a wider scope.

In 1990, the United Nations began negotiations on a climate change treaty based on the IPCC's first assessment report. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was passed in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Its goal is to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases to prevent dangerous interference to the climate system. In view of greenhouse gas science, the first principle adopted by the UNFCCC in Article 3.1 is that the parties will protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations based on fairness and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and their respective responsibilities. Capabilities (CBDR and RC). These principles also stipulate that sustainable development is a right to take cost-effective preventive measures, and measures to address climate change should not be a means of discriminating against or restricting international trade. In Article 4.1 on Commitments, it is envisaged that, in addition to CBDR, Parties will consider their national and regional development priorities, goals and conditions in their actions. Article 4.2(a) The soft target of peak greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries in 2000 and the subsequent paragraphs 3, 4 and 5 of this Article 4 deal with their provision of funding, technology and capacity building to developing countries. (UNFCCC-Articles 3, 4, 7(2b, 2c) 22(2)). [66]

A few years later, in 1997, according to the second assessment report of the IPCC in 1995, the Kyoto Protocol under the UNFCCC was passed. It stipulates legally binding targets for developed countries and also stipulates the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) for mitigation and cooperation between developed and developing countries, including financial and technical support. The United States did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol after being vetoed by the Senate; Australia did the same. This has had a negative impact on the rights of the Protocol, because it has just begun to be implemented. [k]

The fourth IPCC assessment report in 2007 focused on the need to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius. Therefore, the Bali Conference of the Parties (COP) reached agreement on paragraph 1(b) of the relevant decision[67], especially All countries will take differentiated mitigation actions. Before the Copenhagen Conference of the Parties (CoP) in 2009, many countries submitted climate change mitigation commitments, which were formally established during the 2010 Cancun Conference of the Parties. At the Durban Conference of the Parties in 2011, the negotiation of a universal treaty after 2020 was launched in accordance with the "Climate Change Convention". Convention, with a view to finalizing before the 2015 Conference of the Parties. As a measure to provide mutual assurance, at the Warsaw Conference of the Parties in 2013, the parties agreed to submit their nationally determined contribution expectations in 2015 long before the Conference of the Parties. This also implies a “top-down” target setting. As agreed by the UNFCCC or its Kyoto Protocol, it is no longer on the table.

The fifth assessment report of the IPCC submitted in batches during 2013-14 provided the latest scientific basis for the negotiation process of the post-2020 treaty agreed at the Paris Conference of the Parties in 2015, especially the serious consequences of global temperature rise. The Paris Agreement (PA) aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication. Its temperature target is well below 2 degrees Celsius and the target is 1.5 degrees Celsius. PA will be implemented according to different national conditions to reflect fairness and CBDR&RC. [l],[m],[68],[69]

In the consecutive CoPs held between 2016 and 2019 after Paris, except for some issues, they all agreed on the work plan of the Paris Agreement. These include market and non-market mechanisms that will replace or expand CDM. PAWP is expected to be completed on the Glasgow CoP in 2020, but due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the Glasgow CoP has been postponed to 2021. Although the Paris Agreement came into effect on November 4, 2016, the NDC under it was shrouded by a pandemic from January 1 2021.

Because of the country’s vastness, diversity, and other natural environments discussed in this article, almost all of the impacts outlined above apply to some or other areas of the country. UNFCCC in its Articles 12 and 10 envisages Parties to submit and review National Communications (NATCOM), which includes lists of emissions by sources and removals by sinks, steps taken to implement UNFCCC, and any other relevant information. So far, India has submitted two NATCOMs. In addition, in the 2010 Cancun CoP, both parties agreed to submit a biennial update report (BUR) to its NATCOM, and India has submitted three such BURs.

A 2020 report from the Department of Earth Sciences provides an up-to-date and detailed assessment of climate change in India. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, India is expected to experience temperature rises of approximately 4.7°C and 5.5°C related to the corresponding temperatures in the recent past (average values ​​for 1976-2005), which is the worst-case scenario. Therefore, thermal stress will be amplified, especially in the Indo-Ganges and Indus river basins. The heat of the tropical Indian Ocean is also expected to rise. In terms of precipitation, the regional model in India predicts that the variability of precipitation will increase, the daily extreme precipitation will increase substantially, and the average will increase. The climate model also shows that under RCP 8.5, the increase in monsoon precipitation changes and the increase in water vapor demand will cause droughts to become more frequent and severe, and the possibility of area expansion is high. In the case of sea level rise, the scenario in India is even worse. Under RCP 4.5 (conservative scenario), an increase of 300 mm relative to the average (1986-2005) is expected; the global average is about 180 mm.

Salt intrusion and high storm surges during tropical cyclones have become a problem, especially on the east coast. India’s climate model further predicts an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean, while snowfall in the Hindu Kush Himalayas will be significantly reduced, even though annual precipitation may increase. [70] All these changes will further affect the human system and economy in the ways that have been discussed earlier in this article.

Therefore, in this era of greater climate uncertainty, India faces the dual challenge of maintaining economic growth and eliminating poverty, while adapting to the imminent threat of climate change and contributing to global mitigation efforts. In 2012, the second NATCOM submitted by India to the UNFCC was supplemented by a continuous BUR, trying to list these impacts, while emphasizing that India’s huge population is directly dependent on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and forestry, so the country has many issues worthy of attention. . In addition, India’s national development goals span various systems, such as habitat, health, energy, and infrastructure investment, all of which will be adversely affected by climate change. [71]

Although India’s climate response is based on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Paris Agreement, it is consistent with modern India’s response to its natural climate change. It is also based on its constitution and cultural spirit, as described in the relevant part of this article.

India has been committed to adapting to the current climate variability, which is much higher than the prevailing situation in most parts of the world. Successive Indian governments have prioritized improving the country’s overall adaptability. This is an acknowledgement of the fact that insufficient preparation will undermine India’s aspirations for sustainable and equitable development and poverty eradication. The domestic situation in India shows that most of the expected climate impacts, mainly caused by increased temperature and rainfall changes, have been addressed; except for some new impacts, such as glacier retreat and sea level rise.

Although it is feasible to strengthen coastal areas' ability to withstand storm surges and sea level rise, there is no simple solution to the accelerated retreat of glaciers. Over the past two centuries, some retreats have occurred as part of the natural cycle. As climate change is full of unknowns, India now needs to eradicate poverty in a time-bound manner, adapt its economy to climate change, and improve the adaptability of its people, communities and institutions. Since climate adaptation planning and execution must be carried out locally, it requires focused local research to achieve all of this.

In terms of mitigating climate change, India has been making decisions based on its natural endowments-for example, trying to replace oil and natural gas with solar/wind/nuclear and hydropower, and emphasizing energy efficiency, so as to make its economic growth and greenhouse to a certain extent Gas emissions decoupling. Developed countries have basically switched from coal to oil and natural gas to reduce carbon emissions: the United States exploits shale oil and gas; the European Union and Russian natural gas; France turns to nuclear power; and Norway, to hydropower.

These options are not feasible for India, because its dependence on large imports of hydrocarbons and coal is its main energy source. Wind energy has limited potential; nuclear energy has issues with fuel supply; and hydropower projects have social and seismic stability issues. Therefore, India regards solar energy, forestry and bioenergy as three possible alternatives. However, solar energy suffers from intermittent problems. When it is dark or cloudy and the grid-scale battery storage has not yet taken off, there is no output. Bioenergy is costly and needs to be transferred from the food chain. Finally, for baseloads, there are currently no readily available substitutes other than coal or nuclear power.

Carbon reduction in the steel and cement industries is critical to India, but it is not practical anywhere in the world, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) has not yet achieved global success. Most importantly, despite the provisions of the climate treaty, the establishment of organizations such as the Green Climate Fund (GCF), and the pious statement of intent, no meaningful climate funding or climate technology flows have occurred. India's energy transition seeks to be based on its tight resources. Therefore, India’s mitigation efforts need to successfully resolve these constraints and uncertainties without affecting its fair development agenda.

After the UNFCCC came into force on March 21, 1994, India continued to play a role in establishing relevant institutions, formulating rules, and completing the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. After the Kyoto Protocol came into effect on February 16, 2005, India actively participated in the CDM and obtained the most carbon emission reduction units (CER), second only to China. In those years, from 1992 to 2007, India pursued its sustainable development agenda, including energy efficiency and unconventional energy.

After agreeing to the Bali Action Plan in December 2007, which envisages that all countries will take climate action under the principles of equity and CBDR, India announced its National Climate Change Action Plan (NAPCC) in June 2008. The plan outlines India's development prospects. Its unique resource endowment, the overriding priority of economic and social development, and the civilized heritage that insists on attaching great importance to the environment and maintaining ecological balance. NAPCC includes eight national missions, two of which — solar energy and energy efficiency improvement — are related to mitigation; one mission on forests (Green India) is for adaptation and mitigation; four missions, sustainable habitat, water, Himalayan ecosystems, adaptation-related agriculture, and an overall task of knowledge about climate change strategies.

NAPCC follows the following principles: to protect the poor through inclusive, sustainable and climate-sensitive development; national growth and poverty reduction goals; demand-side management; extensive and accelerated deployment of adaptation and mitigation technologies; sustainable development of innovative markets, supervision and voluntary Mechanism; unique links with civil society, local government units (LGU), and public-private partnerships (PPP). The technical documents attached to NAPCC clarify other priority areas such as advanced technology, disaster management, health sector and coastal protection. The technical paper also lists climate finance and technical issues and the need to strengthen the implementation of the UNFCCC. The selection of NAPCC tasks and other priority areas is in line with the natural situation outlined earlier in this article. [72]

Although NAPCC was publicly announced and implemented thereafter, India officially issued the first international announcement on climate change mitigation in the form of a Copenhagen commitment in November 2009, just before the 15th COP. The statement It was subsequently submitted to the UNFCCC in January 2010. In its commitment, India voluntarily proposed to reduce its GDP emissions intensity by 20-25% by 2020 from the 2005 level. This commitment is bound by relevant national legislation and policies and UNFCCC, especially its Article 4.7 stipulates that economic and social development and poverty eradication are overriding priorities. It is relevant that emissions from the agricultural sector do not form part of the emission intensity assessment. India’s Copenhagen commitment reflects its intention to contribute to global mitigation efforts while protecting its fragile agricultural sector and pursuing its national priorities. [73]

As mentioned earlier, in order to ensure mutual assurance, it was decided to submit the INDC well before the Paris Conference of the Parties—that is, before the content or binding nature of the proposed agreement is known. India submitted its INDC on October 2, 2015. India’s INDC is clearly based on “best effort” and not on any specific temperature goals or shared visions, which are still being negotiated initially. In fact, among the G-20 countries, India is the only country where NDC meets the requirements of the 2 degrees Celsius target subsequently reached in Paris. [74]

Prior to the three mitigation contributions, the spread of a sustainable lifestyle based on protection and moderation, and the adoption of a climate-friendly and clean economic growth path. The contribution to reducing emission intensity is progress on the 2008 Copenhagen commitment. The follow-up explanation in the INDC document pointed out that there is no binding demand for any sectoral actions, including the agricultural sector. Contributions related to installed power capacity mention resources based on non-fossil fuels, thus opening the door to nuclear and hydropower if required by future climate impacts. In addition, it also lists the assistance provided through technology transfer and international finance, which are important factors in achieving this contribution. The forestry contribution follows the list of adaptation contributions of various vulnerable sectors, including disaster management that was less prominent in the 2008 NAPCC. Fund raising and capacity building as well as cutting-edge research are the last two contributions. After the Nationally Determined Contributions, eight priority areas are listed, of which it is worth noting that climate adaptation infrastructure and the enhancement of climate adaptation capabilities. The INDC document also promises that its implementation will protect disadvantaged sectors and social classes.

The last important communication between India and UFCCC was on October 2, 2016, when it formally ratified the Paris Agreement. The full text of India’s declaration is as follows, including the country’s domestic requirements and understanding of international climate scenarios:

"The Indian government declares its understanding in accordance with its national law; taking into account its development agenda, especially poverty eradication and meeting the basic needs of all citizens, while it is committed to a low-carbon development path and assumes that the supply of clean energy and technology is not hindered. , Financial resources from all over the world; based on a fair and ambitious assessment of the global commitment to climate change, it is ratifying the Paris Agreement."[75]

At the end of this section, we will describe how India implements its climate change commitments. Between 2005 and 2016, India’s GDP emission intensity was reduced by 24%, and the country is expected to meet its Copenhagen commitments. In addition to NAPCC, India is implementing one of the world's largest renewable energy expansion plans. The goal is to achieve 175 GW of renewable energy production capacity by 2022, with an overall target of 450 GW. The shift to renewable energy is particularly reflected in the increase in solar installed capacity-from 2.63 GW in March 2014 to 36.91 GW in November 2020, an increase of 14 times. [76] Energy efficiency is also improving, and the country's forest coverage is also increasing. Much progress has been made since the establishment of NAPCC, and India’s per capita GDP (current US dollars) has risen sharply-from US$998.522 in 2008 to US$1900.707 in 2020. [77] Electricity consumption (kWh per capita) in India has also increased from 561.248 (2008) to 804.51 (2014). [n],[78]

On the international front, India and France jointly launched the International Solar Energy Alliance at the Paris Conference of the Parties on November 30, 2015. [79] During the United Nations Climate Action Summit on September 23, 2019, India also launched the Disaster Resilience Infrastructure Alliance (CDRI)-a group of governments, United Nations agencies and programs, multilateral financial institutions and development mechanisms, private sector and A partnership of knowledge institutions.[80] In November 2020, the Supreme Council for the Implementation of the Paris Agreement (AIPA) was established in accordance with Article 3(3) of the Environmental Protection Act of 1986, including the NDC for the implementation of the Paris Agreement . [81]

Therefore, India has shown its intention to turn climate challenges (mainly a product of its natural environment) into opportunities. India has embarked on the path of climate action based on its domestic requirements and civilized spirit in accordance with its treaty obligations. Although it can be assumed that India will continue to move in this direction, considering how India’s natural environment continues to play a leading role in its economic and public life, any widespread deviation is unsustainable in the long run.

Jayant M Mauskar is an advisor to ORF. He is a retired civil servant and has been involved in climate change negotiations in various capacities since 2006.

Sayanangshu Modak is a junior researcher at ORF, Kolkata

[a] The term "natural environment" refers to resource endowments and climate and geological conditions. "Natural conditions" and "national conditions" cannot be used interchangeably in this article. "National conditions" include the natural environment and other aspects, such as socio-economic history and cultural requirements. "National conditions" were first mentioned in the "United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change" (Article 4.1) and the "Paris Agreement" (Article 2, paragraph 2).

[b] "Meteorological drought" is defined in terms of the degree of dryness compared to the "normal" or average amount and the duration of the dry period. Although meteorological drought is caused by insufficient rainfall, hydrological drought is related to the impact of this shortage of surface and groundwater, and determines the availability of humans and other components of the ecosystem.

[c] India aims to be an actively participating democracy. Article 7 of the Constitution stipulates the distribution of powers and functions between the federal government and the states. For example, each state exercises a certain degree of power in legislation for subjects that appear in the simultaneous list of the constitution and the state list at the same time.

[d] Professor PC Mahalanobis, an Indian statistician and adviser to the late Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, was a member of the Planning Committee. He prepared a growth model and stated that in order to achieve rapid long-term growth, most of the investment expenditure must be used to build basic heavy industries.

[e] India is one of the first countries in the world to have a complete ministry dedicated to renewable energy.

[f] The Disaster Management Law covers disasters such as hurricanes and tsunamis, as well as slow-onset disasters such as floods, droughts, famines and disease outbreaks.

[g] The Global Circulation Model (GCM) is the core of the IPCC scientific evaluation and is mainly based on published peer-reviewed literature.

[h] These include higher energy efficiency, the use of renewable energy/nuclear/hydrogen/non-carbon energy, fuel conversion such as the use of natural gas instead of coal, lifestyle changes, and taxes.

[i] Through methods such as afforestation, carbon capture and storage.

[j] In other words, climate adaptation is the development of resilience to disasters, shocks or pressures caused by climate change.

[k] The first commitment period, 2008-2012, started late, because the protocol did not enter into force until it was ratified by the Russian Federation in 2005. Just before the start of the second phase (2012-2020), Japan and Canada also opted out. CDM started well, but failed due to insufficient demand.

[l] In the PA, it also has the binding force to take and report climate actions, but the results cannot be achieved. This is a continuation of the “bottom-up” trend of submitting the INDC. New regulations on transparency, global inventory (keep the "top-down" option valid), and compliance have been introduced in the PA. Paragraphs 22 and 24 of the decision text attached to the PA stipulate that INDCs that have already been submitted do not need to be resubmitted, although they can be clarified or elaborated.

[m] The nature of PA, that is, whether it is a new climate treaty or UNFCCC, is no longer in doubt after it was approved by President Obama in 2016 and opted out and re-approved by President Trump in 2017. President Biden will act in accordance with their respective presidential powers in 2021 and is related to the implementation of agreements; not like the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Vienna Convention on Ozone Depleting Substances and its Montreal Protocol or the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Its KP and other substantive treaties involve the Senate.

[n] The global averages of per capita GDP and electricity consumption are 10,925.728 (2020) and 3131.68 (2014), respectively.

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[76] Jayashree Nandi, "India-U.S. Cooperation to Ensure Renewable Energy Targets by 2030", Hindustan Times, April 8, 2021.

[77] GDP per capita (current US dollars)-India, World Bank database.

[78] Electricity consumption (kWh per capita)-India, World Bank database.

[79] International Solar Alliance (ISA), "Background".

[80] Disaster Resistant Infrastructure Alliance (CDRI), "CDRI Overview".

[81] India. "India Bulletin". New Delhi: Authoritative publication, 2020.

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